Last October, a paper I co-authored hit the arXivotubes (1110.3845, to be specific). This was, on reflection, one of the better things which happened to me last October. (It was, as the song sez, a lonesome month in a rather immemorial year.) Since then, more relevant work from other people has appeared. I’m collecting pointers here, most of them to freely available articles.
I read this one a while ago in non-arXiv preprint form, but now it’s on the arXiv. M. Raghib et al. (2011), “A Multiscale maximum entropy moment closure for locally regulated space-time point process models of population dynamics”, Journal of Mathematical Biology 62, 5: 605–53. arXiv:1202.6092 [q-bio].
Abstract: The pervasive presence spatial and size structure in biological populations challenges fundamental assumptions at the heart of continuum models of population dynamics based on mean densities (local or global) only. Individual-based models (IBM’s) were introduced over the last decade in an attempt to overcome this limitation by following explicitly each individual in the population. Although the IBM approach has been quite insightful, the capability to follow each individual usually comes at the expense of analytical tractability, which limits the generality of the statements that can be made. For the specific case of spatial structure in populations of sessile (and identical) organisms, space-time point processes with local regulation seem to cover the middle ground between analytical tractability and a higher degree of biological realism. Continuum approximations of these stochastic processes distill their fundamental properties, but they often result in infinite hierarchies of moment equations. We use the principle of constrained maximum entropy to derive a closure relationship for one such hierarchy truncated at second order using normalization and the product densities of first and second orders as constraints. The resulting `maxent’ closure is similar to the Kirkwood superposition approximation, but it is complemented with previously unknown correction terms that depend on on the area for which third order correlations are irreducible. This region also serves as a validation check, since it can only be found if the assumptions of the closure are met. Comparisons between simulations of the point process, alternative heuristic closures, and the maxent closure show significant improvements in the ability of the maxent closure to predict equilibrium values for mildly aggregated spatial patterns.
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